Aloha Hawaii
By: Arthur Campbell
Hawaii is the most likely target for a nuclear show of strength by the North Korean’s whenever they actually manage to get their long range missile program up and running - I estimate somewhere between 12 and 24 months from now. If they choose to destroy a strategic urban or industrial target in either China, Japan, South Korea, or say Alaska, they will be provoking not only possible nuclear retaliation, but most likely prolonged conventional warfare on their borders. Not even the North Koreans want anything quite as messy as a real war. They are more interested in asserting their autonomy, primarily with respect to the United States, and in maybe reclaiming South Korea.
By hitting Hawaii, they leave everyone, including the Americans, with no firm basis for retaliation. Certainly, everyone will step up to the plate to express moral outrage, but all of these governments will be spared the myriad problems associated with the direct effects of the explosion or the fallout. Instead, a small island in the middle of the biggest puddle on the planet will be wiped off the map, and for the most part the business of life can return to normal. Global trade issues will not be impacted, precious oil reserves will not be threatened, and no one will have to do any cleaning up. Of course Greenpeace will be outraged, but there will not be much they can do from a zodiac.
The Republicans will complain about the loss of prime vacation property, and a few good souls with a sense of history will raise the issue of Pearl Harbor, but the average continental American’s day to day existence will not be effected. Gas prices will not go up, Americans will still be able to fly or drive anywhere in the 48 contiguous states for holidays or to visit relatives, and people can focus on what really counts - the terrorist threat eminating from the Middle East. In fact, Bush will probably call for the immediate withdrawal of troops from the demilitarized zone, leaving China and Japan to worry about North Korea’s intentions towards the South. US relations with China and Japan will probably improve.
Of course, all of this is predicated on the assumption that North Korea will actually use its nuclear missile capabilities once they have been established. For a long time North Korea has had an axe to grind with the United States and Japan. More recently, the North Koreans have observed, along with the rest of the world, the rapid internal deterioration of Russia, and the exponential growth of the Chinese economy. It is likely that the Chinese will take over Siberia, and the North Koreans are more than a little upset with the idea of being absorbed into the new China. More than anything else they want to be left alone, and so by taking out Hawaii they send a message to all of their enemies, real and imagined, that is crystal clear but for the most inoffensive at a practical level. It is a moral message from a source that attaches no moral weight to its actions.
Arthur Campbell (Ph.D. - sociology) writes about world affairs, particularly on matters pertaining to religion, science, and global ethics.